From Kim Zablocky's Travels

I thought I would share some information gained from attending the AAFA’s 7th Annual International Sourcing, Customs & Logistics Conference this week in Norfolk VA.

First, the bad news: In October 2008 the U.S. steamship industry had 70 ships laid up; as of April 27th 2009 that number was 506. As for Air Freight, that industry predicts that by 2012, they should meet 2007 sales volume dollars. But things are getting better, starting now, right?

The good news, economically speaking, is that same store sales are getting closer to even, and the ICSC reported April department store sales up 0.7 percent. You can see the full report in the VCF Report on its way to you as I write.

In Consumer Products, the efficiency mantra had always been Cheaper, Faster, Better --as it is in nearly every industry. Our industry has changed dramatically over the last year or so, and what I heard at the AAFA conference was “cheaper, faster, better, safer and legal.” In the past we've always assumed safety and legality. Hot topic issues like CPSIA, 10+2, CT-Pat continue to gain momentum. VCF is addressing these very same topics at our July 2009 conference in San Francisco. Another hot subject is Sustainability, a word not really associated with the carbon footprint or any green initiative; in fact, and as it was discussed at the conference, sustainability really means Do the Right Thing, whether you’re talking excessive packaging, social compliance or any abuse related to the environment, the worker, or the trading partner relationship. It also relates to transparency, that you should know your supply chain, know who you do business with, understand who your suppliers do business with and so on. Some other take aways include:

• DC bypass, a hot topic two years ago, seems to be waning. Many U.S. DC’s simply aren’t at full capacity as they were back in 2006-2007, so there is less need to circumvent. In addition, Quality Control and packaging still seems to be a huge problem when shipping form Asia.


• Traceability: Another hot buzz word from the conference, meaning be forward thinking, What’s in your product? Where did you source all and or parts of your product……next hot regulation coming down the pike is the “Toxic Reform Act” simply look at Europe and its current requirements, than add 2-3 years, that’s where we’ll be.

Following the conference, I toured the APM Portsmouth Terminal in Norfolk, VA; truly exemplifying the art of engineering and technology, it is the only privately owned port in the U.S. Once you enter the gate, it take six minutes to have the system identify you and to begin the automated process of retrieving your container. Neat stuff.

A final note, just recently China raised its GDP forecast for 2009 from +6.7 to 7.2 and in 2010 raised it from 8.5 to 9 percent, things are starting to heat up over there, we can hope for residual effects for the rest of the world.

Business Will Get Better!

I was reading Bloomberg News this morning and saw some more positive signs for our industry. Wal-Mart reported sales for April that exceeded some predictions. Comp Store sales were up 5% at the world's largest retailer vs. the 3% projected. To read the story, click here.

Be on the lookout for the Bernard Sands General Merchandise Comp Store Sales Analysis later today for a full report.

Consumer Confidence at Highest Level since September

I saw this short note in the Bernard Sands Weekly Rankings Alerts from Wednesday, May 6 that I wanted to share...

Consumer Confidence at Highest Level since September
U.S. consumers felt more confident about the economy in April than at any time since the September failure of Lehman Brothers that triggered the financial collapse, a survey showed. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence climbed to 65.1 in April from 57.3 in March. That was the highest since September 2008 and the biggest one-month increase since October 2006. The index of current economic conditions rose to 68.3 in April from 63.3 in March. The index of consumer expectations climbed to 63.1 from 53.5. The survey found that most Americans believe the federal government’s economic stimulus package will boost the economy.